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WHO WILL WIN THIS MONTH

Friday, 12 February 2021

1:25 Lingfield Horse Racing Tips (13th February)


A 6f fillies' novice stakes on standard going. 

Eight runners for those who love their each-way bet. 

I'm writing this post as I think aloud. Looks a half-interesting contest with a mix of trainers, three-year-olds with race experience and debutantes. 

Mummy Bear has raced twice for Richard Hannon. This daughter of Kodi Bear has run over 6f on both starts to date showing improved form on her second effort when beaten by a comfortable winner. Ryan Moore takes the ride and sets a fair standard. Whether you would want to take short odds is a matter of opinion. I would let the betting settle because this horse may drift in the market. 

Archie Watson is a talented trainer who often strikes with his debutantes. *Rosie Power is a well bred horse sired by Siyouni out of a two-time-winning mare who proved successful on her first two starts, then raced up to Group 2, placed five times at Listed class. This March foal races in the familiar silks of Andrew Rosen and Partner and cost 190,000 euros. The betting is the best guide to this fillies' chance. If fancied in the betting should go well, especially if starting favourite. *NR

Mahale has been kept busy with six races under her belt. She has limitations but a horse up to winning a race or two. She cost 42,000 at the yearling sales and half-sister to Opal Tiara who was a decent horse for the Channon yard. Mahale was held in some regard at two and raced at Group class, although beaten. She ran well when making a return to racing over 5f at Lingfield when leading for most and lost in a blanket finish, when half a length behind another Archie Watson horse. It didn't look the most competitive of races although she did overcome a wide draw. She has a low draw and plenty of pace to lead. It wouldn't be a surprise to see those tactics employed. There may be concerns about getting the distance as she didn't look to be doing anything but stopping over 5f. This factor would be a stumbling block for most punters. 

Rae Guest does well with his fillies and Rita The Cheetah run on well to win on debut at Wolverhampton over 5f by a neck. Considering she finished the race lame it showed a gritty, determined horse. This daughter of Prince Of Lir was a bargain basement buy at just 800g, as a yearling. Part owned by Rae Guest, Julie Cecil and Family, she doesn't owe anyone anything. To be fair, that was a pretty ordinary race. She heads here with a win penalty but will appreciate this step up to 6f. It is never a good idea to limit a winner although she will need to show more today. The apprentice takes off a valuable 3lb and a low draw is a positive. 

It's worth keeping an eye on the market for Passionova, trained by George Baker. The stable have a poor win rate on debut but often go well on their second start. This daughter of Bated Breath cost 75,000g at the 2yo Breeze-up sales, which is a significant buy for this stable. This February foal was nibbled in the market and was in need of the race, over an insufficient distance of 5f. She has a form line with Mahale and could well improve markedly for that initial start. Not without a chance and holds each-way claims. Would be very interesting if backed. 

Just Amber and Laetoli make their debuts, both from high-profile yards. 

Just Amber, trained by Clive Cox, is a daughter of Lethal Force out of a five-times-winning mare, who was Listed placed. Similarly owner-bred by Ken Lock for Clive Cox. The mare was a decent type who was a sprinter. The stable debutantes can win at double-figure odds and one to consider if well backed. I would let the betting tell the story with this filly.

Mick Channon unveils Laetoli. This home bred is a daughter of Footstepsinthesand. The stable can win on debut at big odds although I would have doubts about this three-year-old if priced over 10/1. There is a chance this horse will be second string to Mahale and may benefit from the run. The betting will help appreciate strength and weakness.  

Bayamon Belle would need to improve and best watched.

Conclusion: An intriguing race with a little bit of everything. I would be tempted to let the betting settle unless you fancy getting stuck into Passionova as a live hope. George Baker's horse may well be backed although I wouldn't be so interested in this horse if is started at double-figure odds. Rosie Power is interesting and has very good claims, especially if strongly fancied in the betting. Mummy Bear has claims but pretty short odds. Difficult to know what to think about Rita The Cheetah. Mahale may struggle to get home and different tactics may be employed. I would have slight concerns about both. If pressed, I would be looking at Rosie Power and Passionova but both are very dependent on their starting price. Watching brief. 

*NR

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